Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Downward revision of expected

That said, as expected, real wages of April has been revised downward. Because in the final estimate incoming numbers of part-time workers, expected to be but downward revision had been expected, but (0% you did not expect it and drop down to -0.1% from + 0.1% had been).

"April of real wages, final estimates revised downward from breaking down 0.1%
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASFS18H0E_Y5A610C1EAF000/
According to the Monthly Labor Survey of April the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced the 18th (final estimate), real wage index excluding the effect of price changes has been reduced 0.1 percent compared to the same month last year. In preliminary It was a plus for the first time in two years, increasing the ratio of the small part-time workers of revenue compared to full-time in the final estimate. Wage growth is low, I became a minus of 24 consecutive months.
Survey more than five establishments subject. Real wage is calculated by dividing the consumer price index the wage index of nominal (CPI). And if higher than the previous year, indicating that the increased revenue at a pace more than inflation. The preliminary figures were announced two days was 0.1% plus.
Downward revision is because wage growth has slowed. Cash gross salary per employee in the final estimate was a 0.7% increase in the yen average 270,000 3873. It fell 0.2 points compared to the preliminary figures. "

However, whether in real wages is positive, the case to be negative, (April zero) essential of the inflation rate has been sluggish than no sense. The goal of deflation, the only,
"While prices have continued to rise, more to raise the nominal wages, it becomes rich = national real wages plus of"
There is.

Abe administration it is possible to carry out the austerity since 2002, over two years,
"Prices rise, real wages fall, then decrease amount of inflation, negative real wage is reduced."
That, it will be done to the home to go. Over two years, it is reverted to "prices nor sluggish real wages" state of the Noda administration period.

After all, "deflation monetary phenomenon" has recognized the wrong that, you will be brought to the to "go back to" two years. As long deflation is understood to be a "lack of aggregate demand", it may "duck" was no austerity since 2002.

Alternatively, it is also to suppress the demand austerity, exports of real increases in the depreciation of the yen due to monetary easing, growth in nominal wages are accelerating, and might it be that real wages had thought the "duck" to plus of . That said, in reality it does not extend to real exports of Japan.

"Real exports in May compared to the previous month -5.0%, real imports -3.4% = Bank of Japan
http://jp.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idJPKBN0OX0G620150617
The Bank of Japan on the 17th, in response to the trade statistics of May 2015 the Ministry of Finance has announced, it announced substantial import and export preliminary value (seasonally adjusted).
Real exports decreased compared to the previous month of 5.0%, a decrease for the first time in three months.
Real imports compared to the previous month 3.4% decline. It decreased for the first time in two months. (Koryaku) "

So, let's graph of the exchange rate of real exports and against the dollar by way of example.

[Trends in real exports and the dollar exchange rate of Japan]

http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_50.html#Exporate

As usual, real exports of Japan let alone regain the level of before the Lehman shock, well below the previous earthquake. Exchange rate despite returned to the level of around 2007, real exports is the only at about 86 percent.

In other words, the current world is there than to be "lack of demand". In an environment that the first place demand is not expanding "global market", where it reduced the exchange rate, the real export is not growth to "about raising the real wages."
Conversely, growth in real exports of up to before the Lehman shock, this is phenomenal. There is a "demand" that the American real estate bubble, the exchange rate is also a result was weaker yen trend, Real exports from April 02 to January 08, it became what to 1.7 times.

If this much is a huge demand, increasing Japan's nominal GDP and tax revenue, there is of course to improve the primary balance as of yesterday of the graph.

Unfortunately, global demand expansion period of up to '08, we do not have a while is likely to visit. Rather, it has become the outbreak likely situation ○○ crisis in Europe and China continent.

Otherwise is over, unless aimed to raise deflation and real wages by the government to expand their own "domestic demand", it does not end the people of the poverty of our country. Such as "at best" Noda administration period, or prices and real wages continue to remain at close to zero "sluggish", the worst, prices returned to the downward trend, the real wages by nominal wage decreases at higher pace it will be Maimodo~tsu to the downturn circumstances.

If the people to "poverty reduction" be questioned, the government is the only shuffle the rudder to correct economic policies that "demand creation".

Fiscal policy of the Lost Kingdom

Such as when the accounting field has got to the president in the enterprise,
"How to expand sales, or stretch a profit?"
The cry,
"How to reduce the cost, or stretch a profit?"
To the challenge, single-mindedly to reduce the cost, eventually even decreased to go (a result, further cost reduction) profit there frequently to be thrust into a vicious cycle. At a minimum, the required cost even checked strictly, various "procedures" is increased, essential of operating activities I become neglected.

When Watakushi was in certain Canadian large companies, is thoroughly a profit to quote research, authority becomes profusely increase of "department investigate", and have to take your mood of the director of the department, and also estimate it has led to a situation where it is not put out.

Certain television stations of Japan, also a result of the accounting field has got to the president, each department seems to have been requested to "cost uniform 10% reduction". Everyone becomes a frenzy to cut costs, will not make a decent program, the TV station I have slid down from the seat of viewer ratings top.

However, that President companies fall into "cost savings supremacy", this well, it does not affect the overall Japan nation. I am sorry for those of employees, but it is not in the ordinary to win cost savings principle's paranoid in-house politics.

Problem, when done for the ↑ This nation, a huge number of people that the people will be in the fact that adversely affected.

"Fiscal consolidation of numerical targets in the Council to forego" boned policy "draft, PB surplus is intermediate target set
http://www.sankei.com/politics/news/150622/plt1506220033-n1.html
Government 22, Economic and Fiscal Advisory open meeting (chaired by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe) and industrial competitiveness meeting (same), draft guidelines "large-boned policy" and a new growth strategy of economic and fiscal management, which aims to end of this month of the Cabinet decision It was presented. Basic fiscal balance (primary balance, PB) of the 2020 fiscal year in these large-boned policy showed "economic and financial recovery plan (tentative name)", which aims to profitability, the number in expenditure suppression goal is to saw off.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the council "to ensure the country's confidence in the financial, to adhere to the fiscal consolidation goals," he said.
The "economic and financial recovery plan" three years of up to 30 fiscal year in and positioned as "intensive reform period", intermediate target to decrease from 3.3% of the 2015 fiscal PB deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to about 1% the set. If it is insufficient to achieve the targets is carried out at additional measures.
Numerical targets it was not included in the control expenditures. However, continued Based on the track record of the Abe administration, which kept spending increase to about 1.6 trillion yen in the past three years of effort, in terms of was "only a guideline" (Cabinet Office), "the keynote until 2006 the difference then was with to go. " To achieve the plan, we have established a Expert Committee under the Advisory Council, also decided to manage the progress of the plan. (Koryaku) "

You have commentary in recent channel cherry program, the PB is not only one method of fiscal consolidation (reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio of the government). Whether to fiscal consolidation,
"Primary balance (PB)"
"Government bond interest rates"
"Growth rate of nominal GDP"
Of it is determined by the three combination. When would PB deficit, government bond interest rates are low, if is sufficient nominal GDP growth rate, fiscal is to soundness.

In other words, tools, or there is only one PB of means, and always listed in the "target", the current Abe administration is the nonsense pole ball.

That said, it more than terrible is in the Liberal Democratic Party, and was trying to put on in addition to the PB goal until the "target of spending cuts," "large-boned policy". Result, referred to as a "guideline" of expenditure increase, well target ones enters you do not know, it became the iridescent settled.

Head is sore.
Previously, the dispute of official residence side and the Liberal Democratic Party side over the financial discussion,
"And useless guy, more bad guy of discussion"
I have expressed as, in fact,
"Really a useless guy, even Totetsu without any of the bad guy discussion"
I there a feeling that.

Yet government (Cabinet Office) is in deflation countries have admitted that there is a deflationary gap, because is not trying to Tateyo the goals of reduction PB goals and expenditures, it does not become a story. After all, even the Abe administration is also Liberal Democratic Party, is incorporated into the Ministry of Finance as well Democratic administration, it is likely that the rush the routes of fiscal policy of the Lost Kingdom.

To begin with, more than the definition of fiscal consolidation is a "reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio of the government", if you make a financial goal, it is not impossible other than debt-to-GDP ratio of government.

That said, reality PB goal is set to, even more spending cuts specific "guideline" is also entered, you will want to go tied the fiscal policy of the future of our country. That Japan's fiscal 2015 or later come back to deflation, I believe or not than was substantially determined by the "fiscal policy of the Lost Kingdom" this.

The "expansion of public investment," what for "PB improvement"



Currently, the primary balance is 3.3% of GDP (16.4 trillion yen) So, this, roughly to one third or less in three years from now, it is the policy of.

Also in this e-mail magazine (until just before the start of speech against the capital plan), but we have repeatedly explained, based on the primary balance (less than PB), in order to consider the economic and fiscal policy, at least the following three of the "fact" only have to I must keep aware.
http://www.mitsuhashitakaaki.net/2014/12/23/fujii-122/
(1) PB is not a "target" for fiscal consolidation, in order to lower the "debt-to-GDP ratio (nominal)", it is not only a "means".
(2) PB as "reduce the force" with "austerity", the economy is recession, tax revenue is reduced, "rather PB is worsening" to (in the past, it has been repeated).
(3) On the other hand, if you expand the "positive financial", it looks like the PB annual an enlarged fiscal spending deteriorated, since the following year, economic recovery and the tax revenue increase is brought about, the medium term is PB but we will continue to improve.

To above (1) is true that it is stated in the official document, the tendency of (2) (3) is what is revealed from the analysis using empirical data since 1998.

Especially if (3) specifically say, the expansion of public investment of the central government of 1 trillion yen, led to the expansion of public investment in all of the "general government", including the central and local of 2.5 trillion yen, through them, ultimately tax revenue increase of 1.6 trillion yen is effected, may be referred to, it has been to empirically obvious.
http://www.union-services.com/sst/sst%20data/2_57.pdf

This time, in order to this trend to confirm again, the place where the data again since 1998 it becomes deflation was analyzed and this and that, also, (2) and (3) of it but has been confirmed, in that, very interesting trend has been found.

That is,
Between "" and "the degree of deterioration of the PB" of a certain annual "(PB amount of change)," next year "of" the amount of decrease in the proportion of public investment accounts to the government total budget ", there is a positive correlation "
It is a tendency that.

In other words, if the PB is worsening, the following year of public investment is reduced, it was shown that there is a tendency that!

The correlation coefficient, plus 0.47 (By the way, those that p-value of 0.063, is the general level that is said to be statistically there is a significant trend).
This is enough to think about Given, is "horrible" trend.
First of all this is, as a "natural consequence of the economic system", not a trend had revealed itself. Because, public investment,
"Deliberate decision-making of the government."
and because I thing that is by Kesse.
So, when the direction of causal thinking that hardly suited to the past from the future, causal mechanisms that led to this correlation,
"Because the previous year of PB has deteriorated, the government, made a decision that cut the public investment."
The other thing, it is not considered.

...... Kaesugaesu, this is really frightening trend.

Because this result,
"In Japan, public investment, not you is it determined by the logic of" what kind of public investment is needed on the national interest? '"
Not only it shows that,
"In spite of a deflationary period since 1998," because the economy has become worse in Japan, that the attempt to expand the public investment "in order to stimulate the economy, and common sense is for advanced nation in the world logic has hardly been adopted. "
It is because the shows that.

The statistical results Rather,
"Because PB have been worse, now, let me cut in public investment."
The decision-making that, Japan has continued to beat, that, and I have to empirically clear!

In other words, Japan's government since 1998 it becomes deflation is than has been dominated to perfection by the "austerity of thought", in the white shaving the public investment if PB is worsening even a little, repeat spending cut to have, it is up to that.

Only this,
http://trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/tba/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/douro/douro.pdf
And as shown in P15 of, in which public investment is expanding in other countries, only Japan one country, have been radical reduction in the public investment in spite of a deflationary period
"Political decision-making mechanism."
Such I!

Here, as mentioned in the above (3), to be carried out actively finances, tax revenue increases, please remember that there are empirical relationship.

, Combined consider this trend, in Japan, "If PB is worse, to reduce the public investment" if cut at the same time "public investment and that it is" political mechanism "is present, tax revenue is reduced, PB is "economic mechanism that deteriorating" "also is present, it will be that.

So in Japan, by this "match technique" of "political mechanism" and "economic mechanism", once, if PB is worsening, and shaving the public investment, it further PB is deteriorated through further public investment it by "Devil's cycle" has been continues to exist that the sharpener ..., it will be that.

This is to break the "devil of the cycle", you will of what I should do?

Needless to say, it is not possible to change the "economic mechanisms". It is because the so-called law of nature.

But "political mechanism", such as changing, should be able to easily. Just because PB has deteriorated, cut public investment to as "no", and about things, it is easy and would otherwise.

Given the "economic mechanism" rather, PB it is Turning to actively finance in order to raise the tax revenue to what "paradoxical" when the deteriorated, I become a good idea in order to improve subsequent to "PB". After all, public investment of the central government of 1 trillion yen, has led to an increase in total tax revenue of 1.6 trillion yen, because is, it's the Japanese situation since '98.

Of course, when the PB has worsened, it looks as if further exacerbate the PB to decide the politically "expansion of public investment" is,
"Courage"
It may be necessary is.

However, the presence and of "economic mechanism" that "public investment expansion ⇒ economic recovery ⇒ tax revenue expansion ⇒PB improvement of deflation", you only want to understand the presence of statistical data, such as described above to support it
"Intellect"
If there is, the policy of expansion of public investment, it should not be a never difficult story to never "foolhardiness" not choice but to have the "courage", "decision".

By all means to the Government of Japan, the "intelligence" in order to get a "nits" of fiscal consolidation and economic growth that goodwill rough is "courage", I would like, I sincerely pray. "

Fujii teacher, thank you.

When you summarize, '97 of austerity, since '98 of deflation rush Japan,
"Because it is a lack of demand in deflation, public investment expansion for the demand creation"
The cry,
"Since the PB has worsened in deflation, and shaving the public investment as the time being bet, it has exacerbated the PB"
It is why. Moreover, under the political will.

To further add, the same time including medical expenses and nursing care costs in the "government final consumption expenditure" is that it is not so much reduced (flat). This means that the Japanese government of '98 and later, in the fiscal deficit is expanding at deflation, also increases the deficit of PB,
"PB improvement (once, ostensibly) is for, it is necessary to cut government spending, because health care and long-term care social security spending cut that many noisy people affected, such as, for the time being affected area and some companies We cut the public investment to be limited to "
By, it is a translation has continued to aggravate the PB.

Really, and I wish I got to decline by the "politics" of that nation..., And, I think really.
However, because it does not Fumikira in public increased investment to improve the PB, as usual budget deficit continues, it has already decided to reduce medical expenses and nursing care costs. Moreover, the deflation period of fiscal austerity (medical expenses, nursing care cost reduction),
"I must turn off the body, .... Uhh it intends uhh ... (mounting Д`) to leave attached to future generations, ° ·."
Once, there always have been doing.

By the way, public investment ideological strike our "adamantly denied" is, while "labor shortage" that had been brought out before is already towards the eliminated.

[Japan of the construction labor market survey results (April 2015 survey)]

http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_50.html#Kensetsu

for the government to improve the PB, we need to expand the public investment. Land, toughening, earthquake resistance, disaster prevention and mitigation, aging measures of infrastructure, and the sowing for the future productivity improvement, is why the current Japan has ballooned demand for public investment.

If the government decided public investment expansion,
"Deflation"
"Strengthening of the national disaster prevention security"
"Improving the future of productivity."
In addition to,
"Surplus in the primary balance"
high it could also be realized.

Nevertheless, it turned its back on legitimate policy, but spending cuts, promote austerity to be a tax increase, because even though Japan has been decline, this is no longer only called so as "deserved" but there is the truth

Continued technology and demand

CERN, ie CERN (not the SERN) of the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) and its predecessor of the LEP (Large Electron-Positron Collider) large particle accelerator of research that, the development, the production, two of technology is large It has evolved. In other words, it is WEB (LEP during development) and grid computing (at the time of LHC development).

If you leave wrote a fine story, but LEP world of engineers who at the time of development I had to take communication, than to communicate by e-mail is not clear is Karachi, the mail is flying about than say, confusing situation in order to become, and integrated the information in one place, a number of scientists have been developed WEB to see at the same time.

In addition, because there was a need to handle the enormous processing at the time of LHC development, grid computing has evolved.
That is,
"The world of engineers must share information."
"I shall be information processed in parallel at many computers."
Demand is born at the time of the development of large particle accelerator that, I have "technology" in order to meet the demand has been developed.

The history of Japan, we are about to begin the largest project. In other words, Tokyo in 2027 - is the superconducting linear Shinkansen line between Nagoya (at the moment).
Linear Shinkansen, Shinagawa - in the area of ​​about 285 km between Nagoya, about 250 km, that is has become a plan to about 88% is in the tunnel. In other words, Japan biggest ever, though, is the civil engineering work of the largest in human history is now, it is about to begin.

Of course, it will be that many of the difficult Tachifusagaru. Still "a tunnel of more than 200 kilometers, if not must be carefully dug under the mountain range" what demand that is, and I'm sure to lead to Japan's infrastructure technology to the overwhelming level.

Demand is what, I bring technology development.

And, those that produce the demand will be in the "will" of human beings. It is not the money. What "mind that trying to accomplish" is, there is bring demand and technological development.

"<ILC> to set up a human resources ensure measures verification Working Group
http://www.kahoku.co.jp/tohokunews/201506/20150626_33028.html
Experts meeting of the Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry on super-large accelerator "International Linear Collider (ILC)" plan is the 25th, at the 4th meeting was the ministry, a working group to verify the securing and development strategies of human resources required for the plan installation was.
In Working Group to consider and personnel required for the construction and operation of the facility, must become researchers in the future, and the outlook for engineers of securing and training. Open the first meeting in August, with the aim of reporting of the 2015 fiscal year.
Also we went intermediate compiled as experts meeting. And assess the possibility that the new particle other than the Higgs boson is found, such as clarification of the integrated outlook towards risk reduction of the cost increase, it was decided to recommend three items to the Ministry of Education. "

June 25, but experts conference on ILC plan was held, not reported at all national newspapers by way of example.
ILC project the decision of whether or not to perform in Japan, will eventually have been left to the (politicians rather than) the Japanese government. Currently bottlenecks, the two.

The first one is that there is no experience of promoting international project in the "Japan-led" in the past. Japan is able to produce results in the framework of international projects that other countries have made I good at, but that it has created a framework is the "no".

The main authority related to the ILC, the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (because there is interaction with foreign), coordinated by's the Cabinet Office, but ministries and agencies work together "international project that it has created a framework of "the Japanese at least" after the war, "I do not even once.

And, second it is needless to say is "Ministry of Finance". Ministry of Finance is reluctant issued a budget by way of example, the story is there is no hard to move forward.

Currently, China is the fact that construction started after five years, and seeking to advance the project of circular particle accelerator of circumference 70 km. Because a circular accelerator, compared to the ILC linear, level falls. Moreover, Although it is stage that is not yet designed to be started, and Japan has been inefficient, particle accelerator of China will begin as "international project". Sonaruto, "including the Japanese" scientists around the world, engineers will become the situation to participate in the international project of the accelerator of China (is serious).

Now, as Japan has built the ILC, any derivative technology was born, do you want to develop, I do not know anyone at the moment. as However, the WEB and the grid was developed by CERN of LEP and LHC is I undeniably a fact of.

Japan is really, I think the ILC that procreation in human history maximum of electron energy can show the "construction to the will." In order to "Japan" shows the will, the Japanese people must know about the First ILC.

All in all, including the program of the channel cherry tree, I would want to continue the well-known of the ILC to the Japanese people. As our country is national, indicates "will" of the ILC construction, until that day.

Story of your money (prequel)

Shanghai Composite stock index (will not care as a representation) crash and we have, but it only fell to still 3686 points from 5000 points. When the first-order Shanghai stock bubble collapse of the previous, so we crash until it Komu divide the 2000 points from 6000 points, still there in the future, gambler of you threw your money in Chinese stocks. Once you give up, where it is the end game.

Well, because the Bank of Japan announced the funds circulation statistics of the time in '15 the end of March, we will update the graph.

[2015 end of March (preliminary) of Japan's national balance sheet (Unit: trillion yen)]

http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_50.html#15Q1BS

And your money is "record of debt and receivables". As everyone has been printing the "1 million yen bill" as its own debt, it is possible to use it when shopping for one million yen, and negotiable is guaranteed, it will be your money. In that case, the debtor is "everyone", creditors will be referred to as "someone who has a 1 million yen bill".

Although you can not print of one million yen bills, promissory notes that there is a transfer of property, it is normally "your money". Creditors holders of the bill, the debtor is the bill issuer.
All in all, cash bill of you will also be promissory notes of the Bank of Japan. Creditors holders of cash bill, the debtor is subject mean that the Bank of Japan.

With the exception of Shinyorijji by currency issuance of government (not the Bank of Japan), debt and creditors will continue to increase by always "equal". Therefore, the balance sheet of the state will always symmetrical.
"Someone of assets, someone liabilities"
"Someone of the surplus (an increase of assets, or down debt) is, someone of the deficit (down assets, or an increase of debt)"
And I inevitably to.

Japan guys that domestic are fueled with such as "financial collapse" is, even the hard to believe that in the above-mentioned "statistical principles" do not understand. The government seems to think that it is possible to increase the "only" debt (borrowing), it's the world of inhabitants of another world (or rather different dimension).

A result,
"If the government of debt (1206 trillion) exceeds the assets of households (1708 trillion), Uuuu Uuuuu U~u~u~u~u~u ~Tsu ~Tsu ~Tsu !!!! to collapse"
As such, there is of a plight that pop up interesting bankruptcy theory.
If the government is increasing the debt, the more sure "assets" at the same time. As borrow your money, it is that. Your money the government borrowed the (assets), use in the country.

Then, assets that your money will be transferred companies, and to households from the government. That is,
"When the government borrows your money, be sure to increase the assets of the private sector (households, companies)."
I.
Of course, you do not use your money the government borrowed (assets), and if you continue to have something or bank deposits does not cause the above process, So the first place to become a story of "whether the borrowed money for what." It will be.
So,
"When the government of the debt exceeds the assets of households, Uuuu Uuuuu U~u~u~u~u~u ~Tsu ~Tsu ~Tsu !!!! to collapse"
The commentators and I'm sorry, but the more the government in the current Japan is increasing increasing the liabilities, assets of households also continue to increase, even if forever does not come the status of "more than when". It is natural.

In addition, the Japanese government has a surplus of the primary balance, when you reduce the debt, someone on the opposite side always (households, companies, foreign) deficit (down assets, an increase of liabilities) of will increase. This is another, by statistical principle, its is not forced to groan sure.

"Deficit of the balance of payments basis, 9.4 trillion yen the Cabinet Office to estimate revisions than to decrease
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASFS03H2Z_T00C15A7EE8000/
The Cabinet Office also to month, to revise the medium- and long-term estimates for Economic and Fiscal. Deficit of you are aiming for profitability in fiscal 2020 of national and local basic fiscal balance (primary balance) became expected to decrease than the 9.4 trillion yen that was estimated in February. 14 fiscal year of tax revenues to swing it on about 2.2 trillion yen than in January time, it is because the 20 year of the tax revenue outlook is pushed up. (Koryaku) "

Cabinet Office as usual, the aperture to talk to the government "only", the primary balance's surplus, but is doing it's deficit, originally it must be done the simulation was conscious of "National overall balance sheet." The fact that the government reduce the deficit of the primary balance, that amount, or someone else of debt increases, I assets is reduced.

"Someone of assets, someone liabilities"
"Someone of the surplus (an increase of assets, or down debt) is, someone of the deficit (down assets, or an increase of debt)"

Just understand the principle that, financial theory of the current Japan (or the world) is, I think how "What level is low" can be understood. Because even the bureaucrats (Cabinet Office) is this degree, wearing a "knowledge," "knowledge," "wisdom" on its own people your money, there always keenly feel you do not need to level up the whole discussion.