Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Downward revision of expected

That said, as expected, real wages of April has been revised downward. Because in the final estimate incoming numbers of part-time workers, expected to be but downward revision had been expected, but (0% you did not expect it and drop down to -0.1% from + 0.1% had been).

"April of real wages, final estimates revised downward from breaking down 0.1%
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASFS18H0E_Y5A610C1EAF000/
According to the Monthly Labor Survey of April the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced the 18th (final estimate), real wage index excluding the effect of price changes has been reduced 0.1 percent compared to the same month last year. In preliminary It was a plus for the first time in two years, increasing the ratio of the small part-time workers of revenue compared to full-time in the final estimate. Wage growth is low, I became a minus of 24 consecutive months.
Survey more than five establishments subject. Real wage is calculated by dividing the consumer price index the wage index of nominal (CPI). And if higher than the previous year, indicating that the increased revenue at a pace more than inflation. The preliminary figures were announced two days was 0.1% plus.
Downward revision is because wage growth has slowed. Cash gross salary per employee in the final estimate was a 0.7% increase in the yen average 270,000 3873. It fell 0.2 points compared to the preliminary figures. "

However, whether in real wages is positive, the case to be negative, (April zero) essential of the inflation rate has been sluggish than no sense. The goal of deflation, the only,
"While prices have continued to rise, more to raise the nominal wages, it becomes rich = national real wages plus of"
There is.

Abe administration it is possible to carry out the austerity since 2002, over two years,
"Prices rise, real wages fall, then decrease amount of inflation, negative real wage is reduced."
That, it will be done to the home to go. Over two years, it is reverted to "prices nor sluggish real wages" state of the Noda administration period.

After all, "deflation monetary phenomenon" has recognized the wrong that, you will be brought to the to "go back to" two years. As long deflation is understood to be a "lack of aggregate demand", it may "duck" was no austerity since 2002.

Alternatively, it is also to suppress the demand austerity, exports of real increases in the depreciation of the yen due to monetary easing, growth in nominal wages are accelerating, and might it be that real wages had thought the "duck" to plus of . That said, in reality it does not extend to real exports of Japan.

"Real exports in May compared to the previous month -5.0%, real imports -3.4% = Bank of Japan
http://jp.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idJPKBN0OX0G620150617
The Bank of Japan on the 17th, in response to the trade statistics of May 2015 the Ministry of Finance has announced, it announced substantial import and export preliminary value (seasonally adjusted).
Real exports decreased compared to the previous month of 5.0%, a decrease for the first time in three months.
Real imports compared to the previous month 3.4% decline. It decreased for the first time in two months. (Koryaku) "

So, let's graph of the exchange rate of real exports and against the dollar by way of example.

[Trends in real exports and the dollar exchange rate of Japan]

http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_50.html#Exporate

As usual, real exports of Japan let alone regain the level of before the Lehman shock, well below the previous earthquake. Exchange rate despite returned to the level of around 2007, real exports is the only at about 86 percent.

In other words, the current world is there than to be "lack of demand". In an environment that the first place demand is not expanding "global market", where it reduced the exchange rate, the real export is not growth to "about raising the real wages."
Conversely, growth in real exports of up to before the Lehman shock, this is phenomenal. There is a "demand" that the American real estate bubble, the exchange rate is also a result was weaker yen trend, Real exports from April 02 to January 08, it became what to 1.7 times.

If this much is a huge demand, increasing Japan's nominal GDP and tax revenue, there is of course to improve the primary balance as of yesterday of the graph.

Unfortunately, global demand expansion period of up to '08, we do not have a while is likely to visit. Rather, it has become the outbreak likely situation ○○ crisis in Europe and China continent.

Otherwise is over, unless aimed to raise deflation and real wages by the government to expand their own "domestic demand", it does not end the people of the poverty of our country. Such as "at best" Noda administration period, or prices and real wages continue to remain at close to zero "sluggish", the worst, prices returned to the downward trend, the real wages by nominal wage decreases at higher pace it will be Maimodo~tsu to the downturn circumstances.

If the people to "poverty reduction" be questioned, the government is the only shuffle the rudder to correct economic policies that "demand creation".

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