Currently, the primary balance is 3.3% of GDP (16.4 trillion yen) So, this, roughly to one third or less in three years from now, it is the policy of.
Also in this e-mail magazine (until just before the start of speech against the capital plan), but we have repeatedly explained, based on the primary balance (less than PB), in order to consider the economic and fiscal policy, at least the following three of the "fact" only have to I must keep aware.
http://www.mitsuhashitakaaki.net/2014/12/23/fujii-122/
(1) PB is not a "target" for fiscal consolidation, in order to lower the "debt-to-GDP ratio (nominal)", it is not only a "means".
(2) PB as "reduce the force" with "austerity", the economy is recession, tax revenue is reduced, "rather PB is worsening" to (in the past, it has been repeated).
(3) On the other hand, if you expand the "positive financial", it looks like the PB annual an enlarged fiscal spending deteriorated, since the following year, economic recovery and the tax revenue increase is brought about, the medium term is PB but we will continue to improve.
To above (1) is true that it is stated in the official document, the tendency of (2) (3) is what is revealed from the analysis using empirical data since 1998.
Especially if (3) specifically say, the expansion of public investment of the central government of 1 trillion yen, led to the expansion of public investment in all of the "general government", including the central and local of 2.5 trillion yen, through them, ultimately tax revenue increase of 1.6 trillion yen is effected, may be referred to, it has been to empirically obvious.
http://www.union-services.com/sst/sst%20data/2_57.pdf
This time, in order to this trend to confirm again, the place where the data again since 1998 it becomes deflation was analyzed and this and that, also, (2) and (3) of it but has been confirmed, in that, very interesting trend has been found.
That is,
Between "" and "the degree of deterioration of the PB" of a certain annual "(PB amount of change)," next year "of" the amount of decrease in the proportion of public investment accounts to the government total budget ", there is a positive correlation "
It is a tendency that.
In other words, if the PB is worsening, the following year of public investment is reduced, it was shown that there is a tendency that!
The correlation coefficient, plus 0.47 (By the way, those that p-value of 0.063, is the general level that is said to be statistically there is a significant trend).
This is enough to think about Given, is "horrible" trend.
First of all this is, as a "natural consequence of the economic system", not a trend had revealed itself. Because, public investment,
"Deliberate decision-making of the government."
and because I thing that is by Kesse.
So, when the direction of causal thinking that hardly suited to the past from the future, causal mechanisms that led to this correlation,
"Because the previous year of PB has deteriorated, the government, made a decision that cut the public investment."
The other thing, it is not considered.
...... Kaesugaesu, this is really frightening trend.
Because this result,
"In Japan, public investment, not you is it determined by the logic of" what kind of public investment is needed on the national interest? '"
Not only it shows that,
"In spite of a deflationary period since 1998," because the economy has become worse in Japan, that the attempt to expand the public investment "in order to stimulate the economy, and common sense is for advanced nation in the world logic has hardly been adopted. "
It is because the shows that.
The statistical results Rather,
"Because PB have been worse, now, let me cut in public investment."
The decision-making that, Japan has continued to beat, that, and I have to empirically clear!
In other words, Japan's government since 1998 it becomes deflation is than has been dominated to perfection by the "austerity of thought", in the white shaving the public investment if PB is worsening even a little, repeat spending cut to have, it is up to that.
Only this,
http://trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/tba/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/douro/douro.pdf
And as shown in P15 of, in which public investment is expanding in other countries, only Japan one country, have been radical reduction in the public investment in spite of a deflationary period
"Political decision-making mechanism."
Such I!
Here, as mentioned in the above (3), to be carried out actively finances, tax revenue increases, please remember that there are empirical relationship.
, Combined consider this trend, in Japan, "If PB is worse, to reduce the public investment" if cut at the same time "public investment and that it is" political mechanism "is present, tax revenue is reduced, PB is "economic mechanism that deteriorating" "also is present, it will be that.
So in Japan, by this "match technique" of "political mechanism" and "economic mechanism", once, if PB is worsening, and shaving the public investment, it further PB is deteriorated through further public investment it by "Devil's cycle" has been continues to exist that the sharpener ..., it will be that.
This is to break the "devil of the cycle", you will of what I should do?
Needless to say, it is not possible to change the "economic mechanisms". It is because the so-called law of nature.
But "political mechanism", such as changing, should be able to easily. Just because PB has deteriorated, cut public investment to as "no", and about things, it is easy and would otherwise.
Given the "economic mechanism" rather, PB it is Turning to actively finance in order to raise the tax revenue to what "paradoxical" when the deteriorated, I become a good idea in order to improve subsequent to "PB". After all, public investment of the central government of 1 trillion yen, has led to an increase in total tax revenue of 1.6 trillion yen, because is, it's the Japanese situation since '98.
Of course, when the PB has worsened, it looks as if further exacerbate the PB to decide the politically "expansion of public investment" is,
"Courage"
It may be necessary is.
However, the presence and of "economic mechanism" that "public investment expansion ⇒ economic recovery ⇒ tax revenue expansion ⇒PB improvement of deflation", you only want to understand the presence of statistical data, such as described above to support it
"Intellect"
If there is, the policy of expansion of public investment, it should not be a never difficult story to never "foolhardiness" not choice but to have the "courage", "decision".
By all means to the Government of Japan, the "intelligence" in order to get a "nits" of fiscal consolidation and economic growth that goodwill rough is "courage", I would like, I sincerely pray. "
Fujii teacher, thank you.
When you summarize, '97 of austerity, since '98 of deflation rush Japan,
"Because it is a lack of demand in deflation, public investment expansion for the demand creation"
The cry,
"Since the PB has worsened in deflation, and shaving the public investment as the time being bet, it has exacerbated the PB"
It is why. Moreover, under the political will.
To further add, the same time including medical expenses and nursing care costs in the "government final consumption expenditure" is that it is not so much reduced (flat). This means that the Japanese government of '98 and later, in the fiscal deficit is expanding at deflation, also increases the deficit of PB,
"PB improvement (once, ostensibly) is for, it is necessary to cut government spending, because health care and long-term care social security spending cut that many noisy people affected, such as, for the time being affected area and some companies We cut the public investment to be limited to "
By, it is a translation has continued to aggravate the PB.
Really, and I wish I got to decline by the "politics" of that nation..., And, I think really.
However, because it does not Fumikira in public increased investment to improve the PB, as usual budget deficit continues, it has already decided to reduce medical expenses and nursing care costs. Moreover, the deflation period of fiscal austerity (medical expenses, nursing care cost reduction),
"I must turn off the body, .... Uhh it intends uhh ... (mounting Д`) to leave attached to future generations, ° ·."
Once, there always have been doing.
By the way, public investment ideological strike our "adamantly denied" is, while "labor shortage" that had been brought out before is already towards the eliminated.
[Japan of the construction labor market survey results (April 2015 survey)]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_50.html#Kensetsu
for the government to improve the PB, we need to expand the public investment. Land, toughening, earthquake resistance, disaster prevention and mitigation, aging measures of infrastructure, and the sowing for the future productivity improvement, is why the current Japan has ballooned demand for public investment.
If the government decided public investment expansion,
"Deflation"
"Strengthening of the national disaster prevention security"
"Improving the future of productivity."
In addition to,
"Surplus in the primary balance"
high it could also be realized.
Nevertheless, it turned its back on legitimate policy, but spending cuts, promote austerity to be a tax increase, because even though Japan has been decline, this is no longer only called so as "deserved" but there is the truth
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